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View Article  Maricopa Blog

Thanks for stopping by. This is a sticky post! Check out the new articles below this one!

To see the best deals that I have found in the past month http://maricopa.postlets.com/

To see how I find the best deals http://maricopanewhomes.net/

To read a news article about Maricopa from the Arizona Republic http://maricopanewhomes.net/pdf/Maricopa.pdf

Subdivision map of Maricopa. Many folks ask about the locations of the subdivisions in town. This is the best map that I have found. http://www.vestar.com/newsite/Assets/PropertyAssets/MaricopaTC/MaricopaTC.pdf Please note: The brochure is that of a shopping center coming to town. It has 3 anchor stores and a movie theater.

To send me a request or a comment! Brian@MaricopaNewHomes.net  800.207.6919  

View Article  Canadians buying in the US!

Thanks to my client John for this.

Good informationa, FAQ's about Canadians buying in the US.

Here is a link to it: http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/E/pub/tg/p151/p151-07e.pdf   This actually is understandable.

As always, please seek advice from Attorneys and Accountants.

 
View Article  Maricopa ... A break down of subdivisions
There are approx 10 subdivisions in town. here is the low down


Rancho El Dorado- The 1st subdivision built in Maricopa. The homes there are older (built in 2003). The subdivision has been completed for a couple of years. Rancho has a lake, nice playground, palm trees, parks and fountains. Rancho is home to the only public golf course in Maricopa. Many of the homes in the area are shortsales or foreclosures.

Villages at Rancho Eldorado- The subdivision has the only fitness center in town. Small gym, pool, lake, parks and more. The sub has been sold out for about 2 years (There were 2 builders there 2 months ago, but they went out of business)
Many of the homes there are short sales and foreclosures. Builders... DRHorton, Canterra, Hacienda, Centex and a few others.

The Lakes at Ranch El Dorado- Still new builds here. There were 2 builders, but hacienda builders closed their doors, so only 1 remains. The homes are built on a parcel that has a man made lake winding through the area. Bad news is to purchase a lot that backs to the lake will add $30,000-40,000 to the price. Builder... Meritage Homes

Cobblestone- The builder is still building here, but in my opinion, the builder hasn't gotten aggressive enough with the prices. The smallest homes start at $169,000 which is a little high for the market. Amenities include a pool, playgrounds, softball, basketball court. This subdivisions is the closest to Chandler and Phoenix. It is only 3-4 minutes closer, but if thats important to you... Builder- Fulton Homes


I will profile a few more subdivisons on the 5th!
View Article  Maricopa and Pinal County Market latest analysis

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS

June 2008

 

 

May ARMLS Reports

 

Resale Listings

 

The listing count reported in the May Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS)1 Reports, which were released on June 16th, was 54,161—down 1,565 listings from the April reports.  With the exception of December 2007, the listing count has been fairly flat for the last twelve months.  This current level, however, is substantially above the record level of listings prior to January 2005 which was 30,046 listings in February 2003. 

 

Resale Sales

 

ARMLS-reported sales for May rose about 15% from the April sales figure with an increase of 762.  On an annually adjusted basis sales were down 158 or less than 3% from May 2007.  May’s sales quantity is typically higher than April’s and seems to be following the normal calendar cycle.  In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year.  The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales. 

 

Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports.  In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies.  Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.

 

A Two Year Perspective

 

The graph below displays the same data as above, but focuses on only the most recent 24 months.

 

 

 

 

Adjusted Monthly Sales Trend

 

Sales, when compared to one year ago, fell for the thirty-first consecutive month.  This drop of 158 is illustrated in the chart below.    

 

 

ARMLS REPORTED SALES

 

The chart is divided into market condition segments by comparing current sales activity to the sales activity during the same month in the previous year.  Orange reflects relatively normal conditions; Green shows higher than average sales; and Red indicates slowing market activity. 

 

Analysis of these figures clearly shows the following:

 

1.    Prior to thirty-two months ago, sales increased every month for the past four years when compared to that month in the year prior (from orange to green, then back to orange).

 

2.    The thirty-two most current months (red) clearly demonstrate that the hot market of March 2004 – September 2005 has totally disappeared.

 

3.    The collective increase in sales for the past thirty-eight months (orange and red) has been at a substantially slower rate than during the preceding thirteen months (green).

 

 

Our Assessment of the Resale Market

 

Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market.  Currently both of these variables are driving the market.  Up until two years ago, demand was the primary driver.  Then for the past two years supply was the primary driver.  In the last few months demand has also fallen off substantially from what we had considered the norm - a pace similar to 2002 and 2003.

Because of the prolonged over-supply situation, appreciation in resale housing prices has totally disappeared.  The market has now entered a phase where we are seeing an overall price level decline.  A significant price adjustment will be necessary to realign the supply and demand variable.  It is difficult to tell how long that will take.

Copyright® 2008 - This information is compiled and written by Ultimate Information Systems, Inc. Use of this article, in part or in its entirety, is expressly prohibited without written permission.  Click here to request limited rights to reuse this information.

 

We welcome your comments, just click here.

 

 

1 (ARMLS) Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service empasses most of Maricopa and Pinal Counties.
View Article  Slight wobble in Maricopa

Out checking spec prices today, and it seems that DRHorton has adjusted their prices upward. Please keep in mind that DRHorton has approx 12 different product lines in Maricopa, which equals about 1/5 of the new home subdivisions.

The prices were raised across all product lines. The smallest homes (1050 sq ft) increased $5,000.

The largest homes (4400 sq ft) increased $20,000

Yes, we are still in a buyer's market, this is probably just a wobble in prices. Once upper management sees that they aren't selling many, they will re-adjust prices!

View Article  Walmart, Burger King, Movie theaters, coming to Maricopa?

I found the plans for the shopping center being built at Porter & Casa Grande Highway in Maricopa.

As always, plans can change. Please don't shoot the messenger if they do!

Other than that, I am stoked about having a movie theater, car wash and some new stores coming to town.

Here is the link to the builder's brochure! Walmart, carwash & theater

View Article  America's sweatiest city?
No kiddin! It was 110 here today!

Deodorant company names Phoenix sweatiest city

CINCINNATI - It may be a "dry heat" out there, but Phoenix still leads a list of America's sweatiest cities.

The annual ranking comes from Old Spice deodorant, made by Cincinnati-based Procter and Gamble. The company says its findings are based on computer simulations of the amount of sweat an average person would have produced walking around in cities for an hour during June, July and August of last year.

Las Vegas is America's second-sweatiest city, followed by Tallahassee, Florida.

P-and-G's hometown of Cincinnati is a relatively unsweaty Number 59. Other Ohio cities include Cleveland at Number 66, Dayton in 69th and Columbus in 72nd place on the list.


View Article  Maricopa throws a 4th of July Bash! FREE!!!
Maricopa, Arizona, 6:00 p.m. Pacana Park

 

The Great American BBQ and Fireworks Extravaganza.

Friday July 4, 2008, 6:00 p.m., Pacana Park, Maricopa, Ariz.

This slice of Americana includes a pie eating contest, water zone, and movie in the park. Festivities include a fireworks show set off immediately following the movie, a whiffle ball tournament and a watermelon seed spitting contest. Now in its third year, Maricopa’s July 4 event is a celebration of American spirit. www.maricopa-az.gov.

Download flyer (pdf)

View Article  Gone for a week
No Blogging for 1 week! It is my 10 yr anniversary, and taking the wife to Hawaii.
Still have email and phone though!

800.207.6919
View Article  4 states account for 50% of US foreclosures!

Source: BIG BUILDER News
Publication date: June 12, 2008

By Lisa Brown

Dr. Housing Bubble reports that just four states--California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada--account for nearly 50% of foreclosures nationwide, according to recently released numbers from RealtyTrac. In fact, California alone is home to over 26% of national foreclosure activity. For that story and more, check out Big Builder's bi-weekly roundup of the latest in opinion and commentary across the Web.

In light of the recent 17% drop to a 16-year low in Washington Mutual's stock price and subsequent 11% rally, BuisnessWeek's Hot Property questions whether or not a takeover may be in the works.

While government data shows that modern home sizes are huge by historical standards, a recent survey by the American Institute of Architects reveals a trend toward shrinking square footages, according to Inman News.

Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust turns its attention back to Lehman Brothers, which has removed its CFO and COO, and Keybank, which plans to cut its quarterly dividend in half--after 43 straight years of dividend increases.

As gas prices near $4.50 in San Diego, Seeking Alpha questions whether the housing-commute tradeoff will continue to pencil for exurban communities such as Temecula, Calif.

From Illinois to Michigan to Minnesota, The Housing Bubble tells the tale of soaring home prices on multi-year growth spurts that have since come crashing down.

The Wall Street Journal reports that 65.5% of homes sold by Realtors in Sacramento, Calif., for the month of May were bank-owned, foreclosed properties, while the median sales price declined 34.2% year-over-year.

View Article  US Foreclosure set record 1st Quarter

Foreclosures set record in first quarter

Economists expect defaults to keep rising as housing crisis deepens

The Associated Press

updated 3:29 p.m. MT, Thurs., June. 5, 2008

MSNBC.com

 

WASHINGTON - Home foreclosures and late payments set records over the first three months of the year and are expected to keep rising, stark signs of the housing crisis' mounting damage to homeowners and the economy.

The latest snapshot of the mortgage market showed that the proportion of mortgages that fell into foreclosure soared to 0.99 percent in the January-through-March period. That surpassed the previous high of 0.83 percent over the last three months in 2007.

The report by the Mortgage Bankers Association also found that more homeowners slipped behind on their monthly payments.

The delinquency rate jumped to 6.35 percent in the first quarter, compared with 5.82 percent for the three months earlier. Payments are considered delinquent if they are 30 or more days past due.

Both the rate of new foreclosures and late payments were the highest on record going back to 1979.

Jay Brinkmann, the association's vice president of research and economics, told The Associated Press that the slump in house prices was the biggest factor for rising foreclosures and late payments.

With prices expected to keep dropping, foreclosures and late payments "are going to continue to go up" in the months ahead, he said.

Homeowners with tarnished credit who have subprime adjustable-rate loans took the hardest hits. Foreclosures and late payments for these borrowers also swelled to all-time highs in the first quarter.

The percentage of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages that started the foreclosure process climbed to 6.35 percent. The rate was 5.29 percent in fourth quarter, the previous high.

Late payments rose to 22.07 percent from 20.02 percent, the previous high.

The association's survey covers just over 45 million home loans.

More problems also cropped up with loans to more creditworthy borrowers.

The percentage of such loans falling into foreclosure was 0.54 percent, compared with 0.41 percent at the end of last year. Late payment rose to 3.71 percent, compared with 3.24 percent.

The numbers were higher for prime borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages. The proportion of those loans falling into foreclosures jumped to 1.55 percent from 1.06 percent. The delinquency rate rose to 6.78 percent, compared with 5.51 percent.

"The number one problem is the drop in home prices," Brinkmann said. Declining prices, especially in newer built areas, "are hurting people's ability to recover when they run into trouble — a divorce or loss of job," he said. "In other days, you could sell the home. But because home prices have fallen so much, in many of those cases, the homes are going into foreclosure."

California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona accounted for 89 percent of the total increase in new home foreclosures, he said. Those are places where prices have fallen sharply and there was a lot of home building, creating too much supply, Brinkmann said.

The housing crisis is at the center of the country's economic troubles.

After a five-year boom, the market fell into a deep slump two years ago. That dragged down sales, and prices with it. As the value of homes plummeted, many newer homeowners found themselves owing more on their mortgages than their homes were worth.

Homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages were clobbered when their initially low rates reset to much higher ones. That made it difficult, if not impossible, to keep up with monthly mortgage payments.

As foreclosures and late payments climbed, financial companies took multibillion losses when their investments in mortgage-backed securities soured. A credit crisis erupted and spread, crimping other types of financing. The fallout plunged Wall Street in turmoil, disrupting the normal functioning of markets.

All those troubles have pushed the economy to the brink of a recession, if the country isn't already in one. Consumers and business have tightened their spending. Employers have cut more than a quarter-million jobs in the first four months of this year.

To bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve made aggressive interest rate cuts. That has helped homeowners facing rate resets on their adjustable-rate mortgages. But with inflation on the rise, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke this week sent his strongest signal yet that the central bank's rate-cutting campaign started that started in September is coming to an end.

The Bush administration has taken steps to help distressed homeowners. It has urged lenders to freeze rates for some homeowners and encouraged lenders to rework mortgage terms so troubled borrowers can stay in their homes.

Congress is considering giving government-backed mortgages to thousands of strapped borrowers. The White House has expressed some concerns.

View Article  Canadians in Arizona

Specifically for you

www.CanadiansInArizona.Net

 

View Article  Builders and the stock market- June 8

This excerpt from Big Builder Online

By BB Staff

Moody's Investors Service late this morning took down its credit ratings on a half-dozen of the nation's largest home building companies, citing the continuing deterioration of their balance sheets and of the housing market in general.

Moody's dropped D.R. Horton, Centex, Pulte, KB Home and Ryland down one notch to Ba2, its second highest junk category, and it took Lennar down two levels to a Ba3, citing concern over the latter's exposure to joint ventures, its land position, its debt-to-capital ratio and its ability to generate cash going forward.

"The negative ratings outlook reflects Moody's expectation that many of [Lennar's] credit metrics will continue eroding as homebuilding industry conditions remain challenging into next year, with any recovery likely to be sluggish at first, thus prolonging underperformance until early in the next decade," wrote Joseph A. Snider, a Moody's VP and a senior credit officer.

Regarding D.R. Horton, Snider wrote, "The downgrades reflect that the company has begun to generate quarterly losses before impairments and other charges, and Moody's expects this trend to continue into next year, as the rate of expected revenue decline exceeds the pace at which the company can continue to pare costs. When large and continuing impairment charges are folded in, the company's debt leverage will continue to edge up while covenant compliance will become, and remain, very challenging."

The comments were similar for KB, Centex, Pulte and Ryland, in each case centering around continuing generation of losses before impairments and the erosion of debt-to-equity ratios that is likely to make covenant compliance difficult going forward. Snider cited KB for its joint-venture exposure and "already high lease-adjusted debt leverage of 59.2%," and chided Pulte for poor performance relative to its peers in reducing inventory and lot supply.

The entire public builder group was down in mid-afternoon trading, with the exception of NVR (NYSE:NVR), which was up marginally to $552.42. The S&P Home Builders ETF (AMEX:XHB) was off 2.2% at $18.39, nearing its three-month low.

View Article  If you build it they will come.
New movie theater, Burger King and so much more.
This info comes from the Builder/Management's website at http://www.gvsw.com/Content/News.aspx?NewsID=353&DocType=Doc

Finally! Seeing a movie without driving 20 miles!













View Article  Maricopa New Homes, Foreclosures and short sales
Well, we know that sales in Maricopa have increased for the 3rd month in a row.

Lets look at the changes in the types of homes closed last month:

Foreclosures 107
New homes 35
Short sales 9
Resales 4
Relocation 1

Please note: There were more new homes closed than 35.
35 is only the number listed on the MLS. Many builders don't list all homes.

Although the numbers are accurate. There is a slight margin of error as all homes are not clearly labeled foreclosure and shortsales.
View Article  Fannie Mae changes guildelines for borrowers w/ a previous foreclosure
By the way, DU refers to desktop underwriter. Basically, DU determines if the lender is able to get a computerized approval for the loan. If the computer declines the application, it then goes to manual underwriting

Updates to Policy for Prior Foreclosure Actions

Selling Guide, Part X, Chapter 8, Section 803.02, Payment History

The presence of a prior foreclosure action in the borrower’s credit history is evidence of significant derogatory credit and increases the likelihood of future default. The lender should consider the presence of a foreclosure as an added risk element that represents a significantly higher level of default risk. The greater the number of such incidences and the more recently they occurred, the higher the credit risk.

We currently require four years to elapse after a foreclosure before we will consider the borrower to have a re-established credit history. With this Announcement, we are increasing that time period to five years. We will continue to allow a lesser time period to elapse (three years in lieu of the current two-year requirement) for borrowers who can demonstrate documented extenuating circumstances that resulted in the foreclosure action.

These policy changes apply to all mortgage loans delivered in accordance with the Selling Guide, loan casefiles underwritten with DU Version 7.0, or pursuant to any variance contained in the lender’s Master Agreement.
Manually Underwritten Mortgage Loans

Elapsed time is measured by comparing the application date of the new mortgage to the completion of the foreclosure action as reported on the credit report or other foreclosure documents provided by the borrower.

After the requisite five year elapsed time period
-
The borrower may obtain a new mortgage to purchase a principal residence with a minimum 10 percent down payment and a minimum credit score of 680.
-
The borrower may obtain a limited cash-out refinance mortgage pursuant to our eligibility requirements in effect at that time.
-
The borrower may not obtain a cash-out refinance or obtain a mortgage secured by a second home or investment property for seven years after the foreclosure action.

If the foreclosure was the result of documented extenuating circumstances (as defined in the Selling Guide) and the requisite three year elapsed time period has passed
-
The same requirements apply as outlined above, with the exception that the minimum credit score of 680 is not required.
Mortgage Loans Underwritten with DU

DU determines the elapsed time based on the credit report date and the length of time that has elapsed since the foreclosure was reported in the credit report.

If the foreclosure was reported within five years of the credit report date, the loan will receive a Refer with Caution/IV recommendation.

Announcement 08-08 Page 11

DU is unable to determine if there were extenuating circumstances that resulted in a foreclosure action. If lenders have the appropriate documentation that extenuating circumstances were the cause of the foreclosure and at least three years have elapsed since the foreclosure, lenders can manually underwrite a loan that otherwise received a Refer with Caution/IV recommendation. The loan must meet all requirements of the Selling Guide or this Announcement that pertain to manually underwritten loans, including full documentation, minimum credit scores, maximum LTV ratios, etc.

If DU is unable to determine the date of the foreclosure, the lender will receive an Underwriting Finding message requiring the lender to manually verify the filed and satisfied date of the foreclosure action and apply the policy accordingly.

Effective Date
These changes are effective for all manually underwritten mortgage loans with application dates on or after June 1, 2008 and for loan casefiles submitted to DU Version 7.0. Mortgage loans that conform to our existing foreclosure policy must be purchased by Fannie Mae on or before October 31, 2008 for whole loans, or delivered into MBS pools with issue dates on or before October 1, 2008.

View Article  Model Home Furniture sale Sat June 7th 8am-noon

Clients ask me all the time where builders find those incredible furnishings. I am not sure, but I know where you can get them now!



View Article  Finally a bridge over the wash!

This won't make too much sense unless you have visited Maricopa, but there is a very deep wash/gulley on Honeycutt Road. Many homeowners have to take an alternate route after heavy rains. I have been telling folks that the bridge should be started soon. Here is the press release!

 

Santa Rosa Bridge to get underway.
Maricopa, Ariz. (June 3, 2008) - At tonight's City Council meeting, held at 7:00 p.m. at Global Water Center, the Council voted unanimously to award a contract to DBA Construction in the amount of $2,444,489.80 to construct a bridge over the Santa Rosa Wash on Honeycutt Road.
 
The bridge will be four lanes wide, include pedestrian sidewalks and is ADA compliant. Construction on the bridge is expected to begin in early July with an estimated completion date in January 2009.
 
"It is anticipated that Honeycutt Road will remain open during bridge development," stated Development Services Director Brent Billingsley. "The only exception would be a short closure for the construction of the temporary bypass road."
 
This will be the City's first major construction project. The bridge was originally stipulated to the Tortosa development, but in order to ensure citizen safety and move the completion date forward the City took over the project.
 
Funding is $1 million from transportation DIF, $750,000 from Pinal County half-cent road tax and the remaining $750,000 is from the general fund capital reserve.
 

# # #

View Article  Maricopa sales up for 3rd month in a row!

I believe that we can call this a trend now. It is a small one, but still a trend!

May sales 153 homes

April sales 136 homes

March sales 108 homes

Please keep in mind that these are only homes listed on the MLS. Many builders don't list their spec homes there. There are undoubtedly more homes sold, but that has been constant the entire trend.

View Article  New Homes- 5 year picture- May '08

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS

May 2008

 

New Homes: The Five-Year Picture

 

The current over supply situation became undeniable when our market exceeded the historical record for specs twenty-six months ago (2,400 specs reported the week of January 15, 2006).  This article provides you with a historical perspective and a glimpse at our current market in the big picture. 

 

Five-Year Subdivision Count

 

The first two years of the five-year graph below shows a normal ebb and flow of active subs; the count climbs in late spring, when builders are preparing for the summer when sales are typically higher, and declines a little in late summer.  In 2004 and 2005 the active sub count dropped dramatically with the investor/speculator boom, when plans for coming subdivisions could not be acted upon as fast as active subdivisions were selling out.  The lowest count was 482 active subs in May 2005.  Compare that with the current count of 1046 active subs and you can see that the active sub count is still double what it was two and one half years ago, but the subdivision count has been declining for the last nine months.

 

UIS defines an active subdivision as one accepting contracts from qualified buyers.  The subdivision count data we report comes from the Ultimate New Homes (UNH) database, which covers the entire Phoenix metro market area and approximates the area covered by the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS).  Ultimate New Homes covers all of Maricopa County (74% of UNH subs) and significant portions of Pinal County (23% of UNH subs) as well as a few location outside of these counties (primarily in Yavapai County) (3% of UNH subs). 

 

 

Five-Year Spec Count

 

The Ultimate Information System (UIS) spec count is made up of the individual properties that each subdivision chooses to report to us to be included in the UIS system for ARMLS affiliates.  The degree of completion will vary from builder to builder and from one subdivision to another.  We believe our current count is on the conservative side, as some subdivisions do not report their total spec quantity to us.

 

We only have comprehensive spec data going back through October 2004.  Prior to that our data is spottier, but we know that the highest historical spec count was 2,400 in May 2003.  Even with this partial data, a pattern is readily apparent.  The spec count maintained a low to normal level throughout 2004, and fell sharply in 2005 during the real estate boom when supply was unable to keep up with demand.  For a year after October 2005 the spec count climbed steadily and then declined over the next six months to a new plateau.   Since April 2007 the spec count has remained at a level well above the normal market level.

 

Five-Year Builder Count

 

Again, UIS lacks complete five-year data, but a pattern is still clearly visible.  We have the highest historical builder count in March 2003 (159 builders), and a slow decline of builders since then.  The builder count started rising again in June 2005, and is now at 174.

 

Commentary

 

The subdivision and spec counts and graphs clearly illustrate that the Phoenix metro area new homes market is in uncharted territory and has been for two and on half years.  Confirming this is the fact that many builders are taking extraordinary measures to attract buyers in order to reduce spec inventory including:

1. Offering huge buyer incentives

2. Offering unprecedented Realtor® co-broke rates. 

3. Offering very substantial price reductions

 

 

It is our belief that we will not see what would be considered a normal market until the spec count has been reduced to about 2,500 and the subdivision count is back in the range of 800.  These counts have been leveling off in the past couple months, however even when these levels are reached the resale inventory must be considered. Therefore, we conclude that we are still many months away from a balanced market.

 

Copyright® 2008 - This information is compiled and written by Ultimate Information Systems, Inc. Use of this article, in part or in its entirety, is expressly prohibited without written permission.  Click here to request limited rights to reuse this information.

 

View Article  Listing v. Sales price graphs
 
 

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS

May 2008

 

Listing vs. Sales Price

 

This article looks at the relationship pattern between the Median* Listing Price and the Median* Sales Price.

 

Commentary

 

The pattern associated with the size of the expectation gap that started appearing when the median sale price flattened out in June 2005 has significance.  Also note that the expectation gap is shrinking.

 

 

*The median price is the price at which 50% of the homes sold had a price greater than this number and 50% had price less than this amount.

 

 

Copyright® 2008 - This information is compiled and written by Ultimate Information Systems, Inc. Use of this article, in part or in its entirety, is expressly prohibited without written permission.  Click here to request limited rights to reuse this information.

 

View Article  Why Possible shortsale and foreclosures aren't being sold!!

I think I have the answer!

It is because the listing realtor doesn't return call from the buyer broker.

If the buyer broker has clients that would like to make an offer, then feel free Mr. Lister to answer your phone and answer his questions.

If you aren't returnung calls asap, then you are not doing your fiduciary duty. If my clients buy another house, because you never communicated to me, then you have done a poor job...

You mister Realtor, get this!

View Article  Resale Sales Analysis

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS

May 2008

 

Resale Sales Analysis

 

The April ARMLS1 Reports reported sales of 4,875, which is an increase of 572 from March.  On a seasonally adjusted basis sales were down 652 from April 2007.

Sales Patterns

There are several different factors that interact to make up the current sales numbers.  One of the most significant is the seasonal pattern clearly seen in the graph below.  The winter months show the lowest sales volume, while the summer months are the highest in sales.  This basic pattern is true for each year displayed.

 

A second factor is an abnormal market condition.  The investor/speculator craze in 2004 and 2005 was just such a condition.  Therefore comparing sales numbers to those time periods shows a significant decline, which is not an accurate indication of the health of the Phoenix area real estate market.  Sales similar to the 2002 and 2003 sales volume represent a normal sales level for the Phoenix metro area market with current interest rates and job growth.

 

Historical Patterns

 

In addition to the seasonal pattern, note the monthly sales volume increase of each year from the previous year.  This pattern existed throughout 2002-2005, until twenty-eight months ago.  In these last twenty-eight months sales volume has been well below that of the same month a year prior.  This relationship is shown in the graph below.

 

 

Commentary

 

The sales level for the past nine months is far below the historical norm.  Lack of consumer confidence is likely the major factor.   Counter balancing this lack of consumer confidence is a growing pent up demand for the purchase of houses to support the occupant's lifestyle.  We are not making a prediction as to when the pent up demand will overcome the resistance of the lack of consumer confidence, but when it does happen there will likely be a surge in buying.

 

An important phenomenon to understand is the very significant jump in sales between 2003 and 2004.  For most of 2004 and 2005 sales numbers were much higher than would normally have been expected because of the excess home purchases for non-owner occupied purposes.  Investor/speculator buying was a significant contributor to this increase, and we are now seeing many of these properties re-listed on the market.  

 

Copyright® 2008 - This information is compiled and written by Ultimate Information Systems, Inc. Use of this article, in part or in its entirety, is expressly prohibited without written permission.  Click here to request limited rights to reuse this information.

 

 

 

 

1 (ARMLS) Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service encompasses most of Maricopa and Pinal Counties.

View Article  April Reports from Maricopa & Pinal Counties!

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS

May 2008

 

 

April ARMLS Reports

 

Resale Listings

 

The listing count reported in the April Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS)1 Reports, which were released on May 14th, was 55,726—down 1,355 listings from the March reports.  With the exception of December 2007, the listing count has been fairly flat for the last twelve months.  This current level, however, is substantially above the record level of listings prior to January 2005 which was 30,046 listings in February 2003. 

 

Resale Sales

 

ARMLS-reported sales for April rose about 13% from the March sales figure with an increase of 572.  On an annually adjusted basis sales were down 652 or around 12% from April 2007.  April’s sales quantity is typically higher than March’s and seems to be following the normal calendar cycle.  In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year.  The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales. 

 

Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports.  In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies.  Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.

 

A Two Year Perspective

 

The graph below displays the same data as above, but focuses on only the most recent 24 months.

 

 

 

 

Adjusted Monthly Sales Trend

 

Sales, when compared to one year ago, fell for the thirty-first consecutive month.  This drop of 652 is illustrated in the chart below.    

 

 

ARMLS REPORTED SALES

 

The chart is divided into market condition segments by comparing current sales activity to the sales activity during the same month in the previous year.  Orange reflects relatively normal conditions; Green shows higher than average sales; and Red indicates slowing market activity. 

 

Analysis of these figures clearly shows the following:

 

1.      Prior to thirty-one months ago, sales increased every month for the past four years when compared to that month in the year prior (from orange to green, then back to orange).

 

2.      The thirty-one most current months (red) clearly demonstrate that the hot market of March 2004 – September 2005 has totally disappeared.

 

3.      The collective increase in sales for the past thirty-seven months (orange and red) has been at a substantially slower rate than during the preceding thirteen months (green).

 

 

Our Assessment of the Resale Market

 

Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market.  Currently both of these variables are driving the market.  Up until two years ago, demand was the primary driver.  Then for the past two years supply was the primary driver.  In the last few months demand has also fallen off substantially from what we had considered the norm - a pace similar to 2002 and 2003.

Because of the prolonged over-supply situation, appreciation in resale housing prices has totally disappeared.  The market has now entered a phase where we are seeing an overall price level