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Friday, May 30
Resale Sales Analysis
by
Maricopa New Homes
on Fri 30 May 2008 01:53 PM MST
IN-DEPTH
ANALYSIS
May 2008
Resale Sales
Analysis
The April
ARMLS1 Reports reported sales of 4,875, which is an increase of 572
from March. On a seasonally adjusted
basis sales were down 652 from April 2007.
Sales
Patterns
There are several different factors
that interact to make up the current sales numbers. One of the most significant is the seasonal
pattern clearly seen in the graph below.
The winter months show the lowest sales volume, while the summer months
are the highest in sales. This basic
pattern is true for each year displayed.
A second factor is an abnormal
market condition. The
investor/speculator craze in 2004 and 2005 was just such a condition. Therefore comparing sales numbers to those
time periods shows a significant decline, which is not an accurate indication of
the health of the Phoenix area real estate market. Sales similar to the 2002 and 2003 sales
volume represent a normal sales level for the Phoenix metro area market with current interest
rates and job growth.
Historical
Patterns
In addition to the seasonal pattern,
note the monthly sales volume increase of each year from the previous year. This pattern existed throughout 2002-2005,
until twenty-eight months ago. In these
last twenty-eight months sales volume has been well below that of the same month
a year prior. This relationship is shown
in the graph below.
Commentary
The sales level for the past nine
months is far below the historical norm. Lack of consumer confidence is likely
the major factor. Counter balancing this lack of consumer confidence is a
growing pent up demand for the purchase of houses to support the occupant's
lifestyle. We are not making a prediction as to when the pent up demand will
overcome the resistance of the lack of consumer confidence, but when it does
happen there will likely be a surge in buying.
An important phenomenon to
understand is the very significant jump in sales between 2003 and 2004. For
most of 2004 and 2005 sales numbers were much higher than would normally have
been expected because of the excess home purchases for non-owner occupied
purposes. Investor/speculator buying was
a significant contributor to this increase, and we are now seeing many of these
properties re-listed on the market.
Copyright®
2008 - This information is compiled and written by Ultimate Information Systems, Inc. Use of
this article, in part or in its entirety, is expressly prohibited without
written permission. Click
here to request limited rights to reuse this information.
1 (ARMLS) Arizona Regional Multiple
Listing Service encompasses most of Maricopa and Pinal Counties.
Thursday, May 29
April Reports from Maricopa & Pinal Counties!
by
Maricopa New Homes
on Thu 29 May 2008 10:55 PM MST
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS
May 2008
April ARMLS Reports
Resale Listings
The listing count reported in the April Arizona Regional
Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS)1 Reports,
which were released on May 14th, was 55,726—down 1,355 listings from
the March reports. With the exception of December 2007, the listing count
has been fairly flat for the last twelve months. This current level,
however, is substantially above the record level of listings prior to January
2005 which was 30,046 listings in February 2003.
Resale Sales
ARMLS-reported sales for April rose about 13% from the March
sales figure with an increase of 572. On
an annually adjusted basis sales were down 652 or around 12% from April 2007. April’s sales quantity is typically higher
than March’s and seems to be following the normal calendar cycle. In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to
be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months
before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year. The winter months are consistently the lowest
in sales.
Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS
reports. In these, there are three
months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because
of apparent discrepancies. Additionally,
ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may
contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.
A Two Year Perspective
The graph below displays the same
data as above, but focuses on only the most recent 24 months.
Adjusted Monthly Sales Trend
Sales, when compared to one year
ago, fell for the thirty-first consecutive month. This drop of 652 is illustrated in the chart
below.
ARMLS REPORTED SALES
The chart is divided into market
condition segments by comparing current sales activity to the sales activity
during the same month in the previous year.
Orange
reflects relatively normal conditions; Green shows higher than average sales;
and Red indicates slowing market activity.
Analysis of these figures clearly
shows the following:
1.
Prior
to thirty-one months ago, sales increased every month for the past four years
when compared to that month in the year prior (from orange to green, then back
to orange).
2.
The
thirty-one most current months (red) clearly demonstrate that the hot market of
March 2004 – September 2005 has totally disappeared.
3.
The
collective increase in sales for the past thirty-seven months (orange and red)
has been at a substantially slower rate than during the preceding thirteen
months (green).
Our Assessment of the Resale Market
Supply
and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market. Currently both of these variables are driving the market. Up until two
years ago, demand was the primary driver. Then for the past two
years supply was the primary driver. In the last few months demand has also fallen
off substantially from what we had considered the norm - a pace similar to 2002
and 2003.
Because
of the prolonged over-supply situation, appreciation in resale housing prices
has totally disappeared. The market has now entered a phase where we are
seeing an overall price level decline. A significant price adjustment
will be necessary to realign the supply and demand variable. It is
difficult to tell how long that will take.
Copyright®
2008 - This information is compiled and written by Ultimate Information Systems,
Inc. Use of this article, in part or in its entirety, is expressly
prohibited without written permission. Click here to request limited rights to
reuse this information.
We welcome your comments, just click here.
1 (ARMLS) Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service empasses
most of Maricopa and Pinal
Counties.
Sunday, May 25
Completed spec house $45 per sqft
by
Maricopa New Homes
on Sun 25 May 2008 03:11 AM MST
No, I'm not crazy! The builders are! Do you have any friends that would love a 4400sqft mansion loaded for $198,000? If you do, please call me. This home will sell in the next few days! Here are a few pics!       800.207.6919
Saturday, May 24
City of Maricopa new library
by
Maricopa New Homes
on Sat 24 May 2008 01:08 AM MST
| Maricopa Public Library. |
 The City of Maricopa's City Council voted unanimously, 5-0, on Wednesday, May 21, 2008, to purchase a new building for the Maricopa Public Library.
The new Maricopa Public Library will be 8,085 square feet, and it will be located on the northeast corner of Smith-Enke Road and Desert Greens Drive, in the Rancho El Dorado subdivision.
"It is the work of the City to create community," stated Mayor Kelly Anderson. "The new library will offer greater opportunities for self-education, life-long learning, and self-improvement."
"This is an exciting time in Maricopa," Anderson continued. "This will be the first civic building built in the City of Maricopa. I encourage everyone in the community to take part in what will become an important part of Maricopa's history."
The new Maricopa Library will feature:
- Expanded hours
- A Maricopa history room
- Community meeting space
- Enhanced community programs
Construction of the library is estimated to be completed in fall, and the library will open its doors in the winter. | Courtesy of cityofmaricopa.net
Wednesday, May 21
Spec v Newbuild v Foreclosure!
by
Maricopa New Homes
on Wed 21 May 2008 09:08 PM MST
Source: BIG BUILDER News
Publication date: May 21, 2008
By Sarah C. Yaussi
Sales may have continued their slow suffering through 1Q2008, but halfway into the second quarter some positive undercurrents have gained force.
According to FTN Midwest's most recent neighborhood survey of 60 public builder communities, traffic levels at new-home communities were heartening in May; 79% of the communities surveyed noted foot traffic was either steady or increased from the previous month. Some of the increase was attributable to seasonal spikes in traffic, but it also marked a steady six-month climb– a fact that analyst Jay McCanless said he believed was just one of a few encouraging market trends.
"We have seen a pick up in traffic from December forward, and it's because people know the deals are out there," he said.
Promotions such as cash toward closing costs, discounted financing, and free upgrades remained ubiquitous, but 53% of the community salespeople surveyed also said they expected future promotions to be smaller than current promotions.
McCanless said incentive offers could shrink going forward for two reasons. First, builders have aggressively cut base home prices; they've slashed prices to the point that McCanless said he believed the majority of price reductions are behind them. Second, because of the costs of options and upgrades–and the labor used to install them–have fallen off in the past two years, builders have chocked their homes full of upscale amenities.
This combination adds up to exceptional value for the buyer, said McCanless, a fact that he anticipates will start to translate into sales.
"If you look at what you get for $1 in a new home for what you get for $1 in an existing home, there's no comparison," he explained. "New homes are beating the you-know-what out of existing homes."
McCanless added that value-driven promotion was also playing a role in the reduction of spec inventory. The level of inventory homes decreased in 68% of the communities surveyed. Similar to results from the April neighborhood survey, specs averaged one to two homes per community in May. McCanless considered this an "appropriate" level. "You have to have some spec on hand or you're toast," he said.
However, Patrick Higgins, vice president of sales and marketing for private builder John Laing Homes, said that in some markets such as Sacramento he's seeing that the pendulum has arguably swung too far. Foreclosures and existing-home inventory aside, new-home inventory levels are so low that "new-home opportunity almost doesn't exist for [buyers] unless they want to wait," he said.
This situation has led builders to face off against another big issue. "The question today is: Are dirt starts worth more than spec inventory? That's a huge question today," Higgins said. "Or did the inventory reduction drop the floor on the market, and that's the new floor?"
While the pricing power of spec versus built-to-order homes rages on, good deals on new homes abound and spec inventory is in check. Considering these two factors, McCanless said it made sense that sales would start to manifest, leading to increased starts in 2009. Also a boon to this outlook was that the credit quality of prospective buyers continued to increase this month. Moreover, reforms at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that reduced down payment minimums to 3% to 5%, depending on the borrower's creditworthiness, could widen the pool of potential new-home buyers.
Sunday, May 18
Maricopa Hospital site
by
Maricopa New Homes
on Sun 18 May 2008 12:01 AM MST
For several years, we have been hearing rumors. Fianlly we can take one item from the rumor list and more it to the fact list. It seems as though the city of Maricopa has set aside a parcel of land for a hospital!  The parcel is located near the corner of Porter RD & Casa Grande Highway. Please note that I am sure this is the planning stages. If and when it happens, it could be a while away. The good news is that someone seems to be thinking ahead!
Friday, May 16
Phoenix Weather this weekend
by
Maricopa New Homes
on Fri 16 May 2008 05:26 PM MST
Just an FYI! Being 100+ Fahrenheit isn't common in March, but it is possible! ...RECORD BREAKING HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND...FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WEATHER
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE A COOLING TREND BEGINS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL NEAR
110 DEGREES SUNDAY...WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 112 DEGREES AT YUMA
ARIZONA MONDAY. THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AT YUMA IS 109 DEGREES. ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA...THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED AT PHOENIX
SKY HARBOR AIRPORT SUNDAY...WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 103 DEGREES SUNDAY
AND 106 DEGREES MONDAY. PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
SHOULD TAKE CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR UNUSUALLY HOT WEATHER FOR MID
TO LATE MAY. AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION... DRINK PLENTY OF CLEAR
FLUIDS...WEAR A WIDE BRIMMED HAT...AND STAY IN THE SHADE OR INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE.
Thursday, May 15
City of Maricopa grows by 13.75 sq miles!
by
Maricopa New Homes
on Thu 15 May 2008 04:28 PM MST
For those readers that have never been to Maricopa, the areas that have now been incorporated into the city are more rural. The lots tend to be 1-3 acres, and many are horse properties!
City of Maricopa grows by 13.75 square miles.
(May 14, 2008, Maricopa, Ariz.) - The City of Maricopa has grown to 56.75 square miles as the City Council passed an ordinance to annex 13.75 square miles at a special meeting held on May 14, 2008.
The annexation area is located along SR 238 and borders the Maricopa County boundary on the west, Bowlin Road on the south and Ralston Road on the east.
"The residents and property owners in this area have always been an extended part of the Maricopa Community, and we are excited to officially welcome them into the City of Maricopa," stated Mayor Kelly Anderson.
This process began on April 17, 2007 when the City filed the petition for Annexation 07-01. In order to be fiscally responsible and responsive to property owners in the area, the City reduced the original size of the annexation area on December 18, 2007. A total of nine neighborhood meetings, and countless internal meetings with property owners, residents, and developers in the area, have been held to facilitate information and answer questions. To get to today's meeting, the City needed to obtain signatures from more than 50% of the total number of property owners in the annexation area and at least 50% of the total valuation of the annexation territory.
"It has been a privilege working with the property owners and meeting the members of our extended Maricopa community," stated Nicole Dailey, annexation project manager.
For more information on Annexation 07-01, visit the City's official website, www.maricopa-az.gov.
- end -
Wednesday, May 14
Maricopa ONLY indepth analysis- Maricopa New/Resale Homes
by
Maricopa New Homes
on Wed 14 May 2008 10:19 PM MST
Hello Readers, I just subscribe to a new service that will give me a Maricopa ONLY indepth Market analysis. I ... more »
Builders in '07
by
Maricopa New Homes
on Wed 14 May 2008 02:04 AM MST
|
Here's some great information. It is the 2007 builder finances for many of the homes in AZ. Remember, when you are looking for Maricopa/AZ Real Estate info, look no further than www.MaricopanewHomes.net
Whether it is Centex in Maricopa, DRHorton in Maricopa, Lennar in Maricopa,Hacienda in Maricopa, Shea in Maricopa, Mertigage in Maricopa, Elite in Maricopa... This is your 1 stop shop for that info.
2007
Public Builder Financials
|
|
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ToTal
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|
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|
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YoY
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HB PreTax
|
HB PreTax
|
|
|
eqUiTY Per
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BaCklog
|
Years
|
|
YoY
|
|
|
|
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revenUe
|
HB
|
UniTs
|
ePs
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CasH
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CHange
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Margin
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Margin
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DeBT/ToTal
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DeBT Per
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Dil. sHare
|
valUe
|
sUPPlY
|
invenTorY
|
CHange
|
|
|
BUilDer
|
graDe
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(in mil)
|
revenUe
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CloseD
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($)
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(in mil)
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(%)
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’07 (%)
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’06 (%)
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CaP (%)
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sHare ($)
|
($)
|
(in mil)
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of loTs
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(in mil)
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(%)
|
|
|
Avatar Holdings
|
B+
|
291.416
|
250.822
|
780
|
$2.22
|
192.258
|
-6
|
14.0
|
24.1
|
19.9
|
$15.34
|
61.90
|
45.131
|
NM
|
389.457
|
-15
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|
|
Brookfield Homes Corp.
|
D
|
583.000
|
541.000
|
839
|
$0.58
|
9.000
|
-90
|
-20.7
|
17.9
|
65.5
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$27.32
|
14.13
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101.680
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11.7
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1078.000
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DN <1
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Centex Corp.
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B–
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9,732.367
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8,961.716
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30,684
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($12.65)
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62.000
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4
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-18.6
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9.5
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53.1
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$29.70
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26.20
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2266.892
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