IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS

May 2008

Resale Sales Analysis

The April ARMLS¹ Reports reported sales of 4,875, which is an increase of 572 from March.  On a seasonally adjusted basis sales were down 652 from April 2007.

Sales Patterns

There are several different factors that interact to make up the current sales numbers.  One of the most significant is the seasonal pattern clearly seen in the graph below.  The winter months show the lowest sales volume, while the summer months are the highest in sales.  This basic pattern is true for each year displayed.

A second factor is an abnormal market condition.  The investor/speculator craze in 2004 and 2005 was just such a condition.  Therefore comparing sales numbers to those time periods shows a significant decline, which is not an accurate indication of the health of the Phoenix area real estate market.  Sales similar to the 2002 and 2003 sales volume represent a normal sales level for the Phoenix metro area market with current interest rates and job growth.

Historical Patterns

In addition to the seasonal pattern, note the monthly sales volume increase of each year from the previous year.  This pattern existed throughout 2002-2005, until twenty-eight months ago.  In these last twenty-eight months sales volume has been well below that of the same month a year prior.  This relationship is shown in the graph below.

Commentary

The sales level for the past nine months is far below the historical norm.  Lack of consumer confidence is likely the major factor.   Counter balancing this lack of consumer confidence is a growing pent up demand for the purchase of houses to support the occupant's lifestyle.  We are not making a prediction as to when the pent up demand will overcome the resistance of the lack of consumer confidence, but when it does happen there will likely be a surge in buying.

An important phenomenon to understand is the very significant jump in sales between 2003 and 2004.  For most of 2004 and 2005 sales numbers were much higher than would normally have been expected because of the excess home purchases for non-owner occupied purposes.  Investor/speculator buying was a significant contributor to this increase, and we are now seeing many of these properties re-listed on the market.  

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¹ (ARMLS) Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service encompasses most of Maricopa and Pinal Counties.