Maricopa New Homes

Maricopa Blog

Maricopa New Homes — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:13:00 -0700

Thanks for stopping by. This is a sticky post! Check out the new articles below this one!

To see the best deals that I have found in the past month http://maricopa.postlets.com/

To see how I find the best deals http://maricopanewhomes.net/

To read a news article about Maricopa from the Arizona Republic http://maricopanewhomes.net/pdf/Maricopa.pdf

Subdivision map of Maricopa. Many folks ask about the locations of the subdivisions in town. This is the best map that I have found. http://www.vestar.com/newsite/Assets/PropertyAssets/MaricopaTC/MaricopaTC.pdf Please note: The brochure is that of a shopping center coming to town. It has 3 anchor stores and a movie theater.

To follow me on Twitter go to : Twitter

(by the way I dont Twitter much Real Estate, most of my posts are recreational!)

To send me a request or a comment! Brian@MaricopaNewHomes.net 800.207.6919

Canadians buying in the US!

Maricopa New Homes — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 22:46:00 -0700

Thanks to my client John for this.

Good informationa, FAQ's about Canadians buying in the US.

Here is a link to it: http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/E/pub/tg/p151/p151-07e.pdf This actually is understandable.

As always, please seek advice from Attorneys and Accountants.

Tax Credit & end of Down Payment assistance don't increase sales!

Maricopa New Homes — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 22:53:00 -0700

$7,500 Tax Credit Fails to Spark Traffic

Source: BIG BUILDER News
Publication date: August 20, 2008

By Sarah C. Yaussi

Neither the new $7,500 first-time buyer tax credit nor the closing window on seller-funded down payment assistance have had much effect on traffic at new-home builder communities in the weeks since the housing recovery bill was signed into law, according to an August neighborhood survey by FTN Midwest Securities. The results suggest that the legislation's stimulative effect on housing may be less of a shot in the arm and more of a time-release formula.

Of the sales representatives surveyed, nearly half said traffic levels remained primarily unchanged from last month. Thirty percent reported increased traffic at their communities since July while 23% saw traffic levels decline.

Roughly eight out of 10 sales reps surveyed understood both the tax credit and changes in down payment assistance, but few were actively marketing these aspects of the new law to home shoppers. Twenty-two percent of respondents sent mailers explaining the new provisions to potential buyers; 16% indicated they sent information out in an e-mail blast to prospects. About half of the survey respondents said they had some sort of information sheet available in their sales centers.

However, more builders may soon begin promoting the legislation, as well as local home building associations. Pulte Homes and Beazer Homes, for example, already initiated marketing campaigns around the tax credit. Pulte launched a national " Jump-Start " promotion, where every buyer who purchases a Pulte home from Aug. 5 through Sept. 15 will receive at least $7,500 in savings to match the government's tax credit. Yesterday, Beazer produced a free informational Webinar for prospective home buyers that focuses on the tax credit.

These types of tactics intend to increase buyer awareness of the law and create urgency in the marketplace, but buyers still appear reluctant. Of the surveyed sales reps who had marketed the new law's provisos, 44% reported little interest from potential buyers. Thirty-nine percent found their efforts generated favorable buyer interest, while 17% said they received mixed responses from prospects.

This stands in stark contrast to reports from the NAHB that its consumer-targeted Web site www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com has generated a tremendous amount of interest. In the site's first five days, the association reported that it generated 50,000 hits from unique visitors.

"Given the significance of this act, a greater sense of urgency was expected, but respondents had a wait-and-see approach," noted FTN analyst Jay McCanless in a research note.

McCanless added that a number of respondents mentioned that new marketing material was expected in the coming weeks, a factor that could influence September traffic levels.

Builders in trouble

Maricopa New Homes — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 15:11:00 -0700

The problem is growing. Finally the Department of Real estate is taking notice also.

The department has released this public information on their website. These are a list of the AZ builders that the Dept of Real Estate feels are in financial danger.

Home buyers should do their due diligence in researching a builder. The only builder that is on this list in Maricopa is Elite. The builders listed seem to be regional builders. No National builders are on the list.

Here is a copy of the list from the Dept of Real Estate Builders in trouble

Another builder goes out of businbess

Maricopa New Homes — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 00:23:00 -0700

Saw this one coming.. as blogged about on July 25th.
Elite had 4 communities in Maricopa, one of them was 95% sold out. The other 3 seem to be most affected by this Chapter 11

Elite Homes firm files bankruptcy

by J. Craig Anderson - Aug. 14, 2008 03:36 PM
The Arizona Republic

A land-investment firm founded in 2005 by the president of Scottsdale home builder Elite Homes Inc. has filed for bankruptcy protection, adding its name to a growing list of housing-industry businesses unable to pay their creditors.

The oddly named company, STH 6,8,10,11,13 Inc., is headed by Elite Homes President Lance Keller. It was incorporated in September 2005 and since has accrued unpaid debts totaling about $10.8 million.

STH 6,8,10,11,13 voluntarily filed for reorganization late Wednesday under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy code, which allows a debt-ridden company to continue operating while the federal bankruptcy court sorts out its creditor issues.

The bulk of STH's debt - $10.5 million - is owed to Seattle-based WRI Communities Fund I LLC for a "bank loan," according to U.S. Bankruptcy Court documents.

Other debts include nearly $50,000 owed to the homeowners association of San Tan Heights, a master-planned community in northern Pinal County developed in 2000 by Miller Holdings principal Larry Miller.

Miller sold Elite Homes 1,290 single-family home lots in 2004 for $37 million to create the Tortosa subdivision in Maricopa along with home-builder partners Shea Homes, HomeLife Communities and DR Horton.

A Larry Miller is listed in STH's declaration of creditors as the company's "chief restructuring officer," but The Arizona Republic was unable to determine Thursday whether he is the same Miller associated with San Tan Heights and Tortosa.

"We don't have any comment at this time," STH and Elite President Keller said Thursday about the bankruptcy filing.

Miller, STH attorney Sheldon "Tony" Freeman and the San Tan Heights HOA did not return calls.

STH 6,8,10,11,13 was the second of two Scottsdale land-investment firms to file for bankruptcy protection Wednesday.

A Scottsdale-based "land bank" has filed for bankruptcy protection in the midst of pending foreclosure action on hundreds of vacant lots it owns in Gilbert and Phoenix.

Taro Properties Arizona LLC and two affiliates, Taro Properties Nevada I and Taro Properties Texas I, filed for protection from creditors in the midst of pending foreclosure action on hundreds of vacant lots it owns in Gilbert and Phoenix.

Happy Canadians continued

Maricopa New Homes — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 20:15:00 -0700

I received an email from Bill and Anna (of Calgary) today.

Thanks for the kind words. It really makes it all worth wild when I meet or exceed someone's expectations!

Hi Brian

Bill and Anna (from Calgary) here.
You are bang right on about the deal we secured in Maricopa.
We are extremely happy with our find/purchase.
Your knowledge of the Maricopa market, reputation with the local builders and your insight into the "best smokin hot deals" directed us to the winter home we had been looking for. The home is all you've said and more. If anyone would like to speak with us about our recent 3 day trip to Maricopa, just have them email us at removed for privacy . We'd be glad to answer questions and offer them a very positive reference on "Brian Petersheim ... Mr. Maricopa" (yes ... one builders rep actually used this line !!)

Thanks again Brian
See you in early October

Latest foreclosure numbers

Maricopa New Homes — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 21:55:00 -0700

Yes, these numbers are reported across the US. The Arizona real estate market has a large number of foreclosures also. ...

Happy Canadians

Maricopa New Homes — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 01:34:00 -0700

Took some great folks out from Calgary this afternoon. There names are Bill & Anna.

We started looking at some ...

Model Furniture sale Friday Aug 22nd!!!

Maricopa New Homes — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 22:28:00 -0700

3000sqft spec for $153,000

Maricopa New Homes — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 23:20:00 -0700

No, I'm not crazy, the builders are.
This home is completed in the city of Maricopa which is approx 20 ...

Canadians and gas prices in the U.S

Maricopa New Homes — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 23:38:00 -0700

This is from my friend Bruce in Canada.
It seems as not only the prices of homes are better here, but looks like gas (as high as we think it is) has better prices in the U.S.

Mixed signals coming from sources!

Maricopa New Homes — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 01:47:00 -0700

In my personal experience, it seems like many of the builders have bottomed their prices out. Now, I have never ...

Resale Sales PRICE analysis- June 2008

Maricopa New Homes — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 00:56:00 -0700

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS

July 2008

Resale Sales Pricing Analysis

The Median Price in the recently-released June ARMLS¹ resale sales reports is $198,900, a decrease of $6,100 from the May reports. The Average Price dropped slightly from $269,700 to $264,500. The graph below displays both the monthly Average Price and Median Price of resale homes sold in MLS from January 2002 through June 2008.

The average price is calculated by dividing the sum of the sales prices by the number of homes sold. The median price is determined by finding the price where the quantity of homes sold for less than that price is equal to the quantity of homes sold for more than that price. The median is a better indicator of the overall market.

Patterns Emerge When the Time Period is Subdivided

When there is a change in the slope of the line for several consecutive months, it indicates a new pattern is emerging. Four such changes appear on this graph. The display below has been subdivided at each change in slope:

Segmented History

At each change in slope of the lines in the graph above, a shift in trend is indicated. We have identified five such distinct market conditions (detailed below). Slow steady growth was experienced from 2002 through 2003 and into very early 2004. Then between March 2004 and February 2005, the median home sales price increased by $40,000. In the four months after that a $60,000 increase happened during the hot market of early summer 2005. Starting in July 2005 and lasting through September the market experienced a clear shift back to a more normal appreciation rate. October 2005 was the first month in the current market condition of flat or slightly falling median home prices.

The five market conditions are defined in the following table:

The annual rate of appreciation (listed as “Annual % Gain for this Market Period” in the chart above) is graphically represented below:

Commentary

Our current real estate market is being driven by both supply and demand. Up until two years ago, demand was the primary driver (B and C). Then, for the past two years supply was the primary driver (D and E). The trigger for the significant fall off in sales prices over the last three months has been the drastic decrease in demand experienced during that period of time. We may have entered a sixth market condition of price fall-off.

2008 Maricopa Labor/Demographics report

Maricopa New Homes — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 02:17:00 -0700

Here are the finer points courtesy of the City of Maricopa

MARICOPA MATTERS
E-conomic
Development News

Maricopa ...

Listing Vs Sales price June 2008

Maricopa New Homes — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 23:20:00 -0700

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS

July 2008

Listing vs. Sales Price

This article looks at the relationship pattern between the Median* Listing Price and the Median* Sales Price.

Commentary

The pattern associated with the size of the expectation gap that started appearing when the median sale price flattened out in June 2005 has significance. Also note that the expectation gap is shrinking.

*The median price is the price at which 50% of the homes sold had a price greater than this number and 50% had price less than this amount.

Resale volume of Sales- June 2008

Maricopa New Homes — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 19:32:00 -0700

The June ARMLS Reports reported sales of 5,748, which is an increase of 111 from May. On a seasonally adjusted basis sales were up 309 from June 2007.

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS

July 2008

Resale Sales Analysis

The June ARMLS¹ Reports reported sales of 5,748, which is an increase of 111 from May. On a seasonally adjusted basis sales were up 309 from June 2007.

Sales Patterns

There are several different factors that interact to make up the current sales numbers. One of the most significant is the seasonal pattern clearly seen in the graph below. The winter months show the lowest sales volume, while the summer months are the highest in sales. This basic pattern is true for each year displayed.

A second factor is an abnormal market condition. The investor/speculator craze in 2004 and 2005 was just such a condition. Therefore comparing sales numbers to those time periods shows a significant decline, which is not an accurate indication of the health of the Phoenix area real estate market. Sales similar to the 2002 and 2003 sales volume represent a normal sales level for the Phoenix metro area market with current interest rates and job growth.

Historical Patterns

In addition to the seasonal pattern, note the monthly sales volume increase of each year from the previous year. This pattern existed throughout 2002-2005, until twenty-eight months ago. In these last twenty-eight months sales volume has been well below that of the same month a year prior. This relationship is shown in the graph below.

Commentary

The sales level for the past nine months is far below the historical norm. Lack of consumer confidence is likely the major factor. Counter balancing this lack of consumer confidence is a growing pent up demand for the purchase of houses to support the occupant's lifestyle. We are not making a prediction as to when the pent up demand will overcome the resistance of the lack of consumer confidence, but when it does happen there will likely be a surge in buying.

An important phenomenon to understand is the very significant jump in sales between 2003 and 2004. For most of 2004 and 2005 sales numbers were much higher than would normally have been expected because of the excess home purchases for non-owner occupied purposes. Investor/speculator buying was a significant contributor to this increase, and we are now seeing many of these properties re-listed on the market.

June 2008 numbers

Maricopa New Homes — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 00:53:00 -0700

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS

July 2008

June ARMLS Reports

Resale Listings

The listing count reported in the June Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS)¹ Reports, which were released on July 15^th, was 53,826—down 335 listings from the May reports. The listing quantity has declined for the 4^th straight month, and has now returned to approximately the same level as April 2007. With the exception of December 2007, the listing count has been fairly flat for the last twelve months. This current level, however, is substantially above the record level of listings prior to January 2005 which was 30,046 listings in February 2003.

Resale Sales

ARMLS-reported sales for June rose about 2% from the May sales figure with an increase of 111. On an annually adjusted basis sales were up 309 or almost 6% from June 2007. This is the first month that there has been an increase in sales over the same month in the prior year since September 2005. June’s sales quantity is typically very close to May’s and seems to be following the normal calendar cycle. In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year. The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.

Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports. In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies. Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.

A Two Year Perspective

The graph below displays the same data as above, but focuses on only the most recent 24 months.

Adjusted Monthly Sales Trend

Sales, when compared to one year ago, rose for the first time since September 2005. This increase of 309 is illustrated in the chart below.

ARMLS REPORTED SALES

The chart is divided into market condition segments by comparing current sales activity to the sales activity during the same month in the previous year. Orange reflects relatively normal conditions; Green shows higher than average sales; and Red indicates slowing market activity.

Analysis of these figures clearly shows the following:

1. Prior to thirty-four months ago, sales increased every month for the past four years when compared to that month in the year prior (from orange to green, then back to orange).

2. The thirty-four most current months (red) clearly demonstrate that the hot market of March 2004 – September 2005 has totally disappeared.

3. The collective increase in sales for the past forty months (orange and red) has been at a substantially slower rate than during the preceding thirteen months (green).

Our Assessment of the Resale Market

Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market. Currently both of these variables are driving the market. Up until two years ago, demand was the primary driver. Then for the past two years supply was the primary driver. In the last few months demand has also fallen off substantially from what we had considered the norm - a pace similar to 2002 and 2003.

Because of the prolonged over-supply situation, appreciation in resale housing prices has totally disappeared. The market has now entered a phase where we are seeing an overall price level decline. A significant price adjustment will be necessary to realign the supply and demand variable. It is difficult to tell how long that will take.

Copyright® 2008 - This information is compiled and written by Ultimate Information Systems, Inc. Use of this article, in part or in its entirety, is expressly prohibited without written permission. Click here to request limited rights to reuse this information.

We welcome your comments, just click here.

¹ (ARMLS) Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service empasses most of Maricopa and Pinal Counties.

Walmart groundbreaking

Maricopa New Homes — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 15:36:00 -0700

Finally!

I am so tired of having to drive to Chandler for my office supplies! I am glad the specualtion and uncertainty is over!

Walmart Breaks Ground in Maricopa.

Maricopa, Ariz. (August 1, 2008) – Maricopa Mayor Anthony Smith, City Council members and representatives from Walmart and Shea Properties will break ground on a Walmart Supercenter in Maricopa’s new retail power center, The Wells, Tuesday, Aug. 12. The groundbreaking ceremony will take place from 8 - 8:30 a.m. with photo opportunities following the ceremony. The Wells is located at the northwest corner of the Maricopa-Casa Grande Highway and Porter Road.

“The city is proud to welcome Walmart as Maricopa’s first anchor store in this new power center,” said Mayor Smith. “This store will provide residents with new local employment opportunities and shopping choices.”

Maricopa’s first Supercenter is slated to open in late spring of 2009. The highly anticipated Walmart store will bring local residents more than 200,000 square feet of savings on grocery, apparel and home items. The new Walmart also will create hundreds of new local jobs.

“The Mayor and City Council, city staff and Burt Dezendorf, among others at Shea Properties, have been extremely helpful partners in bringing Walmart to Maricopa,” said Delia Garcia, Walmart senior manager of public affairs. With their support, Walmart will be able to better serve the needs of the Maricopa community.”

Maricopa’s new Walmart Supercenter is part of the approximately 650,000 square-foot power center, The Wells being developed by Shea Properties. The center’s name is derived from the historic well stop where travelers and locals alike stopped to get water. “Walmart has been an excellent development partner throughout the entire planning process,” said Burton Dezendorf senior vice president and general manager of the Arizona Division of Shea Properties. “The company has worked closely with Shea Properties and the City of Maricopa to create an architectural design and theme for the project that is perfect for Maricopa. We could not ask for a better anchor tenant.”

Press release content above courtesy of E.B. Lane Public Relations.

Model Furniture Sale this weekend

Maricopa New Homes — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 13:25:00 -0700

MODEL FURNITURE SALE

AT LAREDO RANCH- (6 Models!!)

§ First Come First Serve Basis

§ Friday August 1^st and Saturday August 2^nd - Open to the Public

§ All Items Must be Picked Up at Time of Purchase

§ This Sale will be Managed by a Third Party Company

DIRECTIONS: East on US 60 to Ironwood. Exit south to Combs (about 12 miles). At Combs head East to Schnepf Rd. Go North on Schnepf to Laredo Ranch Community.

38467 N. Nuevo Laredo Lane
Queen Creek, AZ 85240
480-987-2699

Say goodbye to Down payment assistance as of 10/01/08

Maricopa New Homes — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 21:27:00 -0700

Here is how it worked with an FHA loan.

Home price $100,000

Buyer doesn't have any disposable income for the 3% down payment required.

Buyer pays $1000 to use the proram.

Builder gives the $3000 down payment to a 3rd party like Ameradream or Neeahmiah. The 3rd party then "donates" the money back to the lender as the client's (buyer's) down payment.

Result is the buyer now has put 3% down toward the home, and now has a new home.

This program is used very often with primary residences. I personally have done had about 20 clients use the proram THIS year.

Making a long story short, this will no longer be allowed.

Here is an exerpt of the stimulus package!

H.R. 3221, the “Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008,” passed the House on July 23, 2008,by a vote of 272-152. On Saturday, July 26, 2008, the Senate passed the bill by a vote of 72-13. The President signed the bill on July 30, 2008. The bill includes the following provisions:

GSE Reform – including a strong independent regulator, and permanent conforming loan limits up to the greater of $417,000 or 115% local area median home price, capped at $625,500. The effective date for reforms is immediate upon enactment, but the loan limits will not go into effect until the expiration of the Economic Stimulus limits (December 31, 2008).

FHA Reform – including permanent FHA loan limits at the greater of $271,050 or 115% of local area median home price, capped at $625,500; streamlined processing for FHA condos; reforms to the HECM program, and reforms to the FHA manufactured housing program. The downpayment requirement on FHA loans will go up to 3.5% (from 3%). The effective date for reforms is immediate upon enactment, but the loan limits will not go into effect until the expiration of the Economic Stimulus limits (December 31, 2008).

Homebuyer Tax Credit - a $7500 tax credit that would be would be available for any qualified purchase between April 8, 2008 and June 30, 2009. The credit is repayable over 15 years (making it, in effect, an interest free loan).

FHA foreclosure rescue – development of a refinance program for homebuyers with problematic subprime loans. Lenders would write down qualified mortgages to 85% of the current appraised value and qualified borrowers would get a new FHA 30-year fixed mortgage at 90% of appraised value. Borrowers would have to share 50% of all future appreciation with FHA. The loan limit for this program is $550,440 nationwide. Program is effective on October 1, 2008.

Seller-funded downpayment assistance programs – codifies existing FHA proposal to prohibit the use of downpayment assistance programs funded by those who have a financial interest in the sale; does not prohibit other assistance programs provided by nonprofits funded by other sources, churches, employers, or family members. This prohibition does not go into effect until October 1, 2008.

VA loan limits – temporarily increases the VA home loan guarantee loan limits to the same level as the Economic Stimulus limits through December 31, 2008.

Risk-based pricing – puts a moratorium on FHA using risk-based pricing for one year. This provision is effective from October 1, 2008 through September 30, 2009.

GSE Stabilization – includes language proposed by the Treasury Department to authorize Treasury to make loans to and buy stock from the GSEs to make sure that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae could not fail.

Mortgage Revenue Bond Authority – authorizes $10 billion in mortgage revenue bonds for refinancing subprime mortgages.

National Affordable Housing Trust Fund – Develops a Trust Fund funded by a percentage of profits from the GSEs. In its first years, the Trust Fund would cover costs of any defaulted loans in FHA foreclosure program. In out years, the Trust Fund would be used for the development of affordable housing.

CDBG Funding – Provides $4billion in neighborhood revitalization funds for communities to purchase foreclosed homes.

LIHTC – Modernizes the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program to make it more efficient.

Loan Originator Requirements – Strengthens the existing state-run nationwide mortgage originator licensing and registration system (and requires a parallel HUD system for states that fail to participate). Federal bank regulators will establish a parallel registration system for FDIC-insured banks. The purpose is to prevent fraud and require minimum licensing and education requirements. The bill exempts those who only perform real estate brokerage activities and are licensed or registered by a state, unless they are compensated by a lender, mortgage broker, or other loan originator.

What's going to happen to the lots that are being sold to investors or other builders?

Maricopa New Homes — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 02:19:00 -0700

Well, Digging deep, I found out about a buyer or two. They aren't investors, and will be building a new line of homes in some of the partially completed subdivisions.

Please keep in mind that the builder may modify or even choose total different floor plans. There is no guarantee until they have permits.

I like the look of some of the new builder's homes. I think they will compliment the subdivisions. Here are a few pictures of their homes throughout the valley.

Like I mentioned, no guarantees until the permit is final! Just some great info to know!

Looks like we will have some nice floorplans to look at in the near future!

Brian Petersheim

Maricopa New Home SPECialist

800.207.6919

Foreclosure numbers by zip code

Maricopa New Homes — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 11:42:00 -0700

Foreclosures

East Valley foreclosures by ZIP code for the first six months of 2008, compared to the same period in 2007. The foreclosure crisis started gaining momentum in May 2007.

Mesa, 85207: 171, 22.

Mesa, 85204: 272, 40.

Chandler, 85225: 244, 38.

Chandler/Sun Lakes, 85248: 55, 20.

Gilbert, 85233: 126, 20.

Gilbert, 85296: 198, 56.

Higley/Gilbert, 85236: 6, 23.

Tempe, 85282: 71, 7.

Tempe, 85284: 17, 4.

http://www.azcentral.com/community/chandler/articles/2008/07/22/20080722ev-foreclose0723.html

Arizona Growth slowing until 2010

Maricopa New Homes — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 16:42:00 -0700

UA report says Arizona growth machine will be back in business by 2010

Phoenix Business Journal - by Cathy Luebke

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 - 1:38 PM MST

The economic recovery in Arizona is expected to be subdued over the next few years, but the state's growth machine should be accelerating again by mid-2010.

That's according to the latest issue of Arizona's Economy, published quarterly by the University of Arizona Eller College of Management.

"All considered, the recovery is expected to be subdued and similar to the 'jobless recovery' following the last recession, when it felt as though the malaise would never end," the report concludes.

The report also offers some specific predictions that back up that view.

Personal income in the Phoenix area is expected to make only a 2.9 percent gain this year to hit $152 billion, followed by 2.5 and 5.2 percent gains in the next two years. More significant jumps are forecast for 2011 at 8.7 percent and 2012 at 10.6 percent.

Retail sales look to regain speed on a similar schedule. Sales are expected to remain flat in the next two years inching up 1 percent to $58 billion this year and another 0.4 percent in 2009. The year 2010, however, is expected to see a 5.2 percent boost, followed by 8.1 percent and 9.5 percent leaps in 2011 and 2012, respectively. That would land Phoenix-area retail sales at $72.5 billion in 2012.

Forecasters say residential building permits will end 2008 down 43 percent at 21,856, then squeak ahead by 2 percent in 2009. An upward climb is expected again in 2010 with a 49 percent jump to 32,663. Significant jumps are forecast for 2011 and 2012, 52 percent and 30 percent, before growth softens in 2013 with a predicted 12 percent growth to 71,732 permits.

Nonfarm jobs are expected to decline by about 1 percent this year and next to 1.88 million, then start a climb hitting 2.25 million by 2013, the report says.

http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2008/07/21/daily30.html?surround=lfn